NEW YORK

The Senate: No Race...


The House:...

• New York's 13th congressional district: This Staten Island district is by far the most conservative part of New York City, but it still votes for Democrats in many elections. Republican incumbent Vito Fossella has won by solid margins since first being elected in a 1997 special election. But he was recently arrested on drunk driving charges,^[119] which led to the revelation that he had an illegitimate child by a mistress.^[120] On May 20, 2008, Fossella announced he would not seek another term, giving ample time for others to decide to run by the September primary.^[121] Other local Republicans are already taking a look at running, including NY1 Newsanchor Lisa Giovinazzo , City Councilman Vincent Ignizio and Fmr. Rep. Susan Molinari.^[122] Among Democrats, attorney Steve Harrison and City Councilman Domenic Recchia are running. Other potential Democratic candidates New York State Assembly members Janele Hyer-Spencer and Mike Cusick.

• New York's 19th congressional district: Populist folk singer John Hall (D) won a major upset by some 6,000 votes in 2006, defeating long time incumbent Sue Kelly (R) in this historically Republican district by 51% to 49%. George W. Bush won this district in the Hudson Valley that is home to West Point with 53% of the vote to 45% of the vote for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Republicans thought they had an excellent chance at unseating Hall with the candidacy of Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul, a wealthy businessman who had outraised Hall during the second quarter of 2007. Saul, later dropped out of the race in November of 2007.^[123] Westchester County Legislator George Oros announced that he would be a candidate, and noted his history of winning elections in a Democratic-leaning constituency since 1995.^[124] Iraq War veteran Kieran Lalor, a conservative and strong proponent of the war in Iraq, was also running for the Republican nod, and ex-Congressman and perennial candidate Joseph J. DioGuardi threw his hat into the ring a week prior to the Republican convention. On May 22, 2008, Republican delegates from each of the five counties represented in the 19th district met in Mahopac, New York to endorse a candidate, and chose candidate Lalor.^[125] The NRCC has had difficulty recruiting a top-tier candidate for this historically Republican district.^{[126][127][128]}

• New York's 20th congressional district: Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004 (CPVI=R+3). Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Gillibrand is drawing a primary challenge from Democrat Morris Guller. Her vulnerability has drawn numerous potential candidates to challenge her in the general election. Former New York Secretary of State Alexander Treadwell who also served as Chairman of the state GOP, and former Army speical forces member Michael R. Rocque have announced their candidacies. Gillibrand has raised over half a million dollars so far for her re-election, a total matched by Treadwell, who will have a difficult campaign ahead of him to stand out amongst a crowded field. Matt Funicello of the Green Party has also filed to run.^[129]

• New York's 21st congressional district: Incumbent Mike McNulty (D) announced in October of 2007 that he is retiring after 10 terms. This predominately urban district includes the cities of Albany, Schenectady, Troy, Amsterdam, Green Island, Gloversville and Johnstown. John Kerry won by 54% to 44% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+8). In a surprise, Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, whose father, Sam Stratton was McNulty's predecessor in Congress, will not be a candidate.^[130] The only announced Democratic candidates are Capitol Region Director for Sen. Clinton Tracey Brooks, who has been endorsed by Green Island Mayor and sister of Mike McNulty, Ellen McNulty, as well as his father Jack McNulty. Albany County Legislator Phillip Steck is also running as well as the Coordinator of the Equal Employment Opportunity program in Albany Lester Freeman. Several Democrats have been mentioned as possible successors to McNulty, including state Assemblyman Ron Canestrari, state Senator Neil Breslin, Two possible Republican candidates are prominent Capital District businessman Steven Vasquez^[131], owner and founder of ReQuest, and former Saratoga County Treasurer Chris Callaghan, who was the Republican nominee for New York State Comptroller in 2006. In March of 2008, Callaghan announced that he would not seek the seat and would support Jim Buhrmaster, a businessman from Scotia.^[132]

• New York's 24th congressional district: Mike Arcuri (D) won his first term with 54% of the vote in a marginal but Democratic-trending district which includes Utica. The district gave George W. Bush 50% of the vote in 2000 and 52% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Contractor Richard Hanna is seriously thinking of running.^[133]

• New York's 25th congressional district: Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) won by 51% to 49% in 2006 in this district that includes Syracuse. On January 23, 2008, The Politico reported that Walsh would not seek reelection.^[134] Walsh's 2006 opponent, Dan Maffei (D) will run again.^[135] On the Republican side, former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland, who is endorsed by Jim Walsh, is considered the presumptive nominee, with his major opponents leaving the race.^[136] Manlius councilman Mark-Paul Serafin and Ron Paul campaign chair David Gay have also announced their candidacies.^[137] John Kerry won 53% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+3).

• New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds (R), the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a key player in the Mark Foley scandal, won by 52% to 48% in 2006. His challenger, frequent candidate Jack Davis, was not considered an especially strong opponent. This historically Republican district, nestled in the wealthy suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, gave George W. Bush 55% of the vote (CPVI=R+3); however Reynolds has decided to retire in 2008 after nearly losing in 2006. The seven Republican county chairman in the district, the state GOP, and Reynolds have all endorsed millionaire businessman Chris J. Lee.^{[138][139][140][141][142][143]} Lee faces a possible Republican primary from Iraq Veterans for Congress member David Bellavia.^[144][145] A Democratic candidate who is held to be stronger than Davis is Iraq War Veteran Jonathan Powers, although he has been the subject of an April 2008 Federal Elections Commission complaint regarding his campaign finance activities.^[146] In November 2007 Buffalo attorney Alice Kryzan announced she will run. County Legislator Kathy Konst will also run.

• New York's 29th congressional district: Randy Kuhl (R) had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Eric Massa (D) by a 52% to 48% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004 (CPVI=R+5). Kuhl is running for reelection.^[147] Massa has also said he will run again in 2008. Despite his district being the most Republican in New York, Kuhl has had multiple difficult reelections in the past.

Retirements:...
New York's 13th congressional district: Vito Fossella(R)
New York's 25th congressional district: Jim Walsh(R)
New York's 26th congressional district: Tom Reynolds (R)
New York's 21st congressional district: Michael McNulty (D)