FLORIDA

The Senate: No Race...


The House:...

• Florida's 5th congressional district: Moderate Ginny Brown-Waite (R) has attracted a serious primary challenger in this sprawling Nature Coast district. As of November, Jim King has already begun a media campaign attacking Brown-Waite from the right and appealing to the conservative Christians who exert a serious influence in the local Republican Party.^[49] While King remains a longshot to unseat Brown-Waite, a lengthy and divisive primary campaign of this sort has the potential to drain the incumbent's campaign resources, splinter her support, and cause her to take up more conservative stances that would appeal less to moderate voters in the general election. Of the three Democrats who have filed to challenge Brown-Waite in November, health care worker and local activist John Russell, who received 40% against Brown-Waite in the 2006 election, will likely be the nominee, hoping to capitalize on Brown-Waite's difficult primary, her modest fundraising, and recent demographic changes in this high-growth area. (CPVI=R+5)

• Florida's 8th congressional district: In 2006, incumbent Ric Keller (R), author of the "Cheeseburger Bill", was reelected by less than expected. Orlando businessman Charlie Stuart, who polled 46%, is running again in 2008. After the November 2006 election, Keller announced that he would break his 2000 pledge to serve only four terms. Because of this, conservative radio host Todd Long is challenging Keller in the Republican primary, as is retired Marine Corps officer Bob Hering and Republican candidate Greg Lewis. Former state prosecutor Mike Smith (D) is also challenging Keller^[50]. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote (CPVI=R+3).

• Florida's 13th congressional district: Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter. Regardless, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008, though Buchanan is far ahead of Jennings in fundraising. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.^[51] To further complicate matters for Jennings, former Democratic Congressional candidate Jan Schneider has filed to run as an Independent.^[52] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).

• Florida's 15th congressional district: Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. This will likely be a competitive race. The only announced Democratic candidate is physician Steve Blythe. Among Republicans, state Sen. Bill Posey has announced his candidacy and has been endorsed by Weldon and the Florida Republican Party. Libertarian Jeffrey Bouffard a Computer Engineer & Army Veteran has also filed to run.^[53] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).

• Florida's 16th congressional district: This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). Negron has announced that he will not run again. State Rep. Gayle Harrell (R) has announced her candidacy but faces conservative primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised about $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.

• Florida's 21st congressional district: Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) has faced nothing more than token opposition since his first election. But this year, he faces the toughest race of his career. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul L. Martinez (D) is running and he is very well-known in the area.^[54] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).

• Florida's 22nd congressional district: First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Former Army officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West and former Navy pilot Mark Flagg both have announced they are running. Neurosurgeon Robert Brodner and 2006 Connecticut U.S. senatorial candidate Alan Schlesinger are also potential candidates. Mike Prysner an Iraq War veteran, peace activist, and college student is running on the Party for Socialism and Liberation ticket.^[55]

• Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008 ^[56]. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis will run again. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3).

• Florida's 25th congressional district: Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (R) faces a challenge from the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chairman, Joe Garcia, a former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF).^[57]
  

Retirements:...
Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon(R)