Incumbent Chris Cannon took a crushing loss to a challenger in the Utah Republican primary last night
Pew: US following election via Web
Once Barack Obama started Twittering, John McCain created a MySpace page, and Hillary Clinton joined Facebook, it became apparent that the 2008 presidential election was relying heavily on social media. But now, a Pew survey has the numbers to prove it, concluding that 46 percent of Americans have used the Internet for politics so far this election season, with topics like Obama and online videos taking a front seat. (more)
Will Iowa finally send a woman to Congress this year?
(desmoinesdem)
Iowa and Mississippi are the only two states that have never sent a woman to Congress or elected a woman governor, but last week Republicans nominated Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa's second CD, and Democrats nominated Becky Greenwald in Iowa's fourth CD. Bleeding Heartland discusses why previous women candidates for Congress didn't win in Iowa, and evaluates the hurdles facing Miller-Meeks and Greenwald.
GOP Recruits make Dems Chortle
By JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 6/11/08 6:56 PM EST
Meet Bob Kelleher, the Republican nominee against Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) this year.
He is an 85-year-old attorney with some downright unconventional views. He believes the American system of representative government should be replaced by a parliamentary system. He calls for socialized medicine, advocates nationalizing the country’s oil and gas industries and believes taxes should be raised significantly to eradicate poverty.
It’s not the standard GOP platform, but nevertheless Kelleher defeated four other candidates in the primary to claim the Republican nomination.
Among those he bested were former state House Majority Leader Mike Lange and businessman Kirk Bushman, who had courted statewide donors and visited Washington to meet with national party representatives. It was Kelleher’s first victory after 15 losses as a Democratic Party and Green Party candidate.
Needless to say, the Republican Party wants nothing to do with him.
If Kelleher were an aberration, his candidacy might be easier for Republicans to swallow. But he’s not.
He’s one of a handful of GOP Senate nominees who are, well, not exactly who the party had in mind. (read more...)
Colorado and Virginia
06.10.08 -- 11:16PM
As I and innumerable others have mentioned, the red states that seem genuinely ripe for flipping this year are Colorado and Virginia. Others are definitely possible. But those are the ones that might even be considered probable.
The most recent poll of Viriginia (May 22nd) has Obama beating McCain by 7 points (49%-42%). And the one immediately previous has Obama down by 3 points (47%-44%).
Colorado is even stronger for Obama. The most recent poll (Rasmussen, May 21st) has Obama up by 6 points and the one previous to that (Ramussen, April 21st) had him up by 3.
The Senate
Unlike the House which elects all 435 members every 2 years, the Senate considers itself a "continuing body" in that only about a third of its members are standing for election every 2 years. This year, however, is a little different in that not only are 1/3 running for election but that we also see in the map above that 2 states have BOTH Senate seats up for grabs ...and that both seats are currently held by Republicans.
This year is particularly different, as well, in that 23 of the Senate seats up for grabs are GOP held as opposed to only 12 held by Democrats. If you add in the factor of the failed Bush presidency. We're looking at a true rout, ladies and gentlemen. The only question is how big of a rout will it be.
Keep an eye toward the tremendous number of Republican retirements too. Nobody is better connected than a US Senator ...if they feel that it's not worth the fight ...then it's not worth the fight.
Every single Republican-held Senate seat is in play no matter how strong the Republican the election returns were last time out. "Veto Proof", is a given for the 2008 results. The question is will the Democrats have enough of a luxurious majority to enforce party unity and oust scalawags like Joe Lieberman from the caucus.
Please help keep us abreast of the latest developments in your "ol' backyard" and of any other news that you run across for Senate seats that fascinate you. Leave your observations and scoops in the comments and we'll promote the best from time to time to new posts.
Electing Barack Obama will be futile if we don't give him a posse. Make sure that you are not only registered to vote ...but that you actually vote and you cast a vote for the Democratic Senator and Congressperson that will allow his vision of change to become reality.
The House of Representatives
In case you forgot, ALL 435 seats in the House are up for re-election every 2 years. That's one of the reasons that it's pretty tough to be a congressperson ...you're always running for re-election and always raising money for the next election.
We here at Yanqui Mike are tracking what are believed to be the 93 most competitive House races of the year... according to Wikipedia and The Cook Political Report, Rothenburg, and CQ Politics. That doesn't mean that there won't be more than those races popping up on the radar as competitive ...but we'll start with those.
The distinctive character of the 2008 races is defined by the fact that this is a presidential election year, the weaknesses of the Republicans trying to run in the wake of a failed Bush presidency, the massive retirements of GOP representatives (and their inability to find top-notch talent to run in their stead) and the special elections that have been held during 2008 which have seen them fall to Democrats in districts that have tremendously loyal Republican voter bases.
Please help keep us abreast of the latest developments in your "ol' backyard" and of any other news that you run across for Congressional Districts that fascinate you. Leave your observations and scoops in the comments and we'll promote the best from time to time to new posts.
Electing Barack Obama will be futile if we don't give him a posse. Make sure that you are not only registered to vote ...but that you actually vote and you cast a vote for the Democratic Senator and Congressperson that will allow his vision of change to become reality.
ALABAMA
The Senate:...
Republican Incumbent: Jeff Sessions
Democratic Challenger: Vivian Figures
The House:...
- Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Terry Everett (R), 71, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republican nominee will be favored to hold this district — George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (CPVI=R+13).On the Republican side, State Sen. Harri Anne Smith and State Rep. Jay Love are going to a runoff, with Love being the strong favorite to be the nominee. The Democratic nominee is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright.
- Alabama's 3rd Congressional District- Incumbent Mike Rogers(R) has never had any difficulty getting elected since his first race in 2002. This year, however, might be different. Democrat Joshua Seagall is running and a recent poll has Rogers leading by a 54% to 26% margin.
- Alabama's 5th congressional district: In a surprise, incumbent Bud Cramer (D) will retire after 18 years.[14] This northern tier district usually votes Republican in national elections, giving Republicans a chance of a pick-up. On the Republican side, Madison County Commissioner Morris Brooks, State Senator Tom Butler and state Sen. Arthur Orr surprised some by announcing that they wouldn't run. On the Republican side; Insurance Agent and 1994 and 1996 nominee Wayne Parker and attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie are going to a runoff, with Parker considered the strong favorite to be the nominee. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Parker Griffith. Cramer originally indicated that he doesn't have a preferred successor and has not entirely ruled out endorsing a Republican,[15] but on April 8, he endorsed Griffith.[16]
Alabama's 5th congressional district: Bud Cramer (D)
Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Terry Everett(R)
ALASKA
The Senate:...
Republican Incumbent: Ted Stevens
Democratic Challenger: Mark Begich
The House:...
- Alaska's At-large congressional district: Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents covers the entire state, will most likely stand for reelection. Young will be 75 in 2008. Once considered politically secure, Young recently became the target of a serious corruption investigation involving the misuse of campaign funds. Young's age, alleged corruption, and stance on federal pork has now made him a likely target for both parties. Recently, State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux has announced she will challenge Young in the GOP primary.[17] Lt. Governor Sean Parnell will also challenge Young in the primary.[18] A strong primary challenge was once rumored from State Sen. Lesil McGuire until McGuire became the target of an ethics investigation as well.[19] Among Democrats, former state Representative Ethan Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lieutenant Governor, has announced, as has 2006 Democratic Party nominee Diane Benson who received over 40% of the vote (93,879) in the last election against Young's 56% (132,743).[20] Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+14). A December 11, 2007 poll has Young trailing Berkowitz 49% to 42%.[21]
ARIZONA
The Senate: No Race...
The House:...
- Arizona's 1st congressional district: In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election,[22] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote against his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). So far, Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt, attorney Howard Shanker, state Representative Ann Kirkpatrick and publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster Mary Kim Titla are declared candidates. (Simon had announced her intention to run again, but then dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons.) The DCCC has talked with attorney Jim Ledbetter. Other potential Democratic candidates include Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director Steve Owens; 2006 U.S. Senate candidate and wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, former Casa Grande mayor Bob Mitchell, who is the brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell; and Pinal County attorney Carter Olson.[23] On the Republican side of the aisle, public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, has announced her candidacy,[24] as has state Representative Lucy Mason. Other potential Republican candidates include state Corporation Commissioner Kristen Mayes,[25] state Senator Tom O'Halloran, and former Navajo County Supervisor Lewis Tenney.
- Arizona's 3rd congressional district: Outspoken conservative John Shadegg (R) had announced that he would not be a candidate for reelection, however, ten days later, announced that he would seek reelection. The district votes Republican in most elections. Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord[26] outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even has more cash on hand than Shadegg, which could result in an unusually competitive race. Shadegg is being challenged in the primary by former State Representative Steve May. Shadegg's 2006 opponent, consultant Herb Paine, has announced his support for Independent candidate Annie Loyd. Libertarian Mark Yannone is also running.[27]
- Arizona's 5th congressional district: Freshman Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative J.D. Hayworth (R) by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (CPVI=R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race likely, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Former state Representative Laura Knaperek,[28] Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, state Representative Mark Anderson and attorney Jim Ogsbury have announced their candidacies.
- Arizona's 8th congressional district: Gabrielle Giffords (D) defeated conservative Randy Graf (R) by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. Giffords could have a difficult re-election bid now that State Senate President Tim Bee has announced his candidacy and is supported by moderate former Rep. Jim Kolbe.[29] Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=R+1). Afghanistan Veteran Derek Tidball is also running as an Independent.[30]
Arizona's 1st congressional district: Rick Renzi(R)
CALIFORNIA
The Senate:...No Race
The House:...
- California's 4th congressional district: On January 10, 2008, nine-term incumbent John Doolittle (R) announced he would retire when his term expires in 2009, to the relief of his fellow Republicans. He has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. In 2006, Doolittle received only 49% of the vote compared to 46% for his opponent, retired Lt. Colonel and War Veteran Charlie Brown (D). Brown is again the Democratic nominee. The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence,[31] and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. This district leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+11) - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. However, many pundits believed Doolittle faced almost certain defeat if he ran again. The Republican nominee is State Senator Tom McClintock, a conservative who was ran near-successful races for state Controller in 1994 and 2002.
- California's 11th congressional district: Republicans will look to oppose Jerry McNerney (D), who defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006 with 53%. The district includes portions of the rural Sacramento Valley, as well as parts of the East Bay. It has a slight Republican lean (CPVI=R+3), but has become more Democratic recently with the arrival of transplants from the Bay Area. Pombo has ruled out a rematch. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal is the Republican nominee.[32] Bush won here with 54% to 46% in 2004.
- California's 46th congressional district: Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has won by wide margins in past elections and represents a fairly safe district. The district covers parts of Orange County and Los Angeles County including the cites of Huntington Beach, Rancho Palos Verdes and Costa Mesa. In 2008 however he faces a potentially formidable opponent in Huntington Beach City Councilwoman Debbie Cook, who is well known throughout the district.
- California's 52nd congressional district: This race is for an open seat, being vacated by former Republican presidential nominee, Representative Duncan Hunter. The Republican nominee is Iraq War Veteran C.P.T. Duncan Duane Hunter Jr. The Democratic nominee is Iraq War Veteran C.M.D.R. Mike Lumpkin. The Libertarian nominee is 2002 congressional candidate Mike Benoit.
California's 4th congressional district: John Doolittle (R)
Completed Special Elections:...California's 12th congressional district: Tom Lantos (D) died February 11, 2008. In this heavily Democratic district, Jackie Speier (D) was elected to succeed him on April 8, 2008.
COLORADO
The Senate:...
Democratic Candidate: Mark Udall
Republican Candidate: Tom Tancredo
Senate Retirements:
Wayne Allard (R)
The House:...
- Colorado's 2nd congressional district: With the retirement of Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall (D) will run for Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district (John Kerry won 59% here, CPVI=D+8), as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. Announced candidates include state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth, and businessman Jared Polis. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin may choose to run as the Green Party candidate. Internet Businessman Bill Hammons is also running as the Unity Party candidate[33].
- Colorado's 3rd congressional district: Incumbent John Salazar (D) could face a tough reelection race this year. The district leans Republican and George W. Bush received 55% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4). Salazar defeated Republican Scott Tipton in the Democratic landslide in 2006. Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf (R) dropped his bid for the U.S. Senate and has decided to run for the Republican nomination to face Salazar, although he faces an uphill battle.[34]
- Colorado's 4th congressional district: Conservative Marilyn Musgrave (R), known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Angie Paccione (D) and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who got 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area (CPVI=R+9), could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats suffered a setback when state Sen. Brandon Schaffer dropped out, citing his party's failure to clear the field. The only declared Democratic candidate is Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar [35]. Also, Eidsness recently switched again (life-long Republican to Reform Party last year) and became a Democrat, which could have fueled a potential rematch with Musgrave in 2008 but he announced he would not run. 2006 nominee Angie Paccione briefly launched a campaign as well, but left the race in September 2007.
- Colorado's 5th congressional district: Freshman Doug Lamborn (R) could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability (Hefley did not endorse Lamborn citing his "sleazy" campaign), still won by a 59% to 41% margin, less than normal for a Republican in that area, but still comfortable. The district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs (CPVI=R+16). Jeff Crank, who (in 2006) very narrowly lost the GOP primary to Lamborn despite Hefley's endorsement, might challenge Lamborn in the 2008 primary for this seat. Recently, Lamborn got bad press when two constituents accused him of making a threatening phone call in response to a critical letter they wrote[36]. In early October 2007, retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, who finished third place in the 2006 Republican primary, announced that he would also run again in 2008[37]. Independent Rich Hand is also running[38].
- Colorado's 6th congressional district: This seat will become open in 2008 as Tom Tancredo (R) is retiring to run for president. The district includes suburbs of Denver. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (CPVI=R+10) (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%). Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman (R) and businessman Will Armstrong have announced their candidacy. Other Republican candidates include state Sen. Ted Harvey, state Sen. Tom Wiens, and possibly state House Minority Leader David Balmer and former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.
- Colorado's 7th congressional district: Freshmen Ed Perlmutter (D) won 55% of the vote in this suburban Denver district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 52% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). The district's voter registration is split, with independents constituting a slim plurality of 35% compared to Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%). In spite of the marginal nature of the district, no Republican has announced yet.
Colorado's 2nd congressional district: Mark Udall (D): Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Colorado's 6th congressional district: Tom Tancredo (R): Retiring, ran for President
CONNECTICUT
The Senate: No Race...
The House:...
- Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: In one of the closest U.S. House races of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated three-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at reelection increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republicans mentioned as possible challengers include Bozrah First Selectman Keith Robbins. Former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan has announced his candidacy. However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=D+8), so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year. Former State Department Of Environmental Protection scientist Scott Deshefy is running as a Green Party candidate,[39][40] Todd Vachon as a Socialist Party candidate,[41] and Dan Reale as a Libertarian.[42]
- Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Chris Shays (R) won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 (CPVI=D+5). In September, 2007, Shays indicated that if he was not given the top Republican seat on the Governmental Oversight Committee, he would retire. The only Republican House member in New England, he will likely be a top target of Democrats if he runs in 2008. Former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes announced his candidacy in April 2007. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, whom Shays had endorsed. Other possible Democratic candidates include state Senators Bob Duff and Andrew MacDonald. Former professional hockey player Mike Richter, once considered a possible candidate, has announced that he is not interested in running in 2008. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. may also try to reclaim his old seat. Richard Z. Duffee is running again as the Green Party Candidate after withdrawing form the 2006 race.[43]
- Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut - although it went to John Kerry with 50% to 48% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable, despite having unseated 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. State Senator David Cappiello (R) has announced that he will run,[44] and state Senator Sam Caligiuri may run as well. GOP state chairman Chris Healy dismissed claims that Murphy's large campaign warchest of $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007 may scare off potential challengers, as Cappiello filed as a candidate in April 2007.[45] National Republicans have begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes.[46] Canton, Attorney Harold Burbank is running as a Green Party candidate.[47][48]
FLORIDA
The Senate: No Race...
The House:...
- Florida's 5th congressional district: Moderate Ginny Brown-Waite (R) has attracted a serious primary challenger in this sprawling Nature Coast district. As of November, Jim King has already begun a media campaign attacking Brown-Waite from the right and appealing to the conservative Christians who exert a serious influence in the local Republican Party.[49] While King remains a longshot to unseat Brown-Waite, a lengthy and divisive primary campaign of this sort has the potential to drain the incumbent's campaign resources, splinter her support, and cause her to take up more conservative stances that would appeal less to moderate voters in the general election. Of the three Democrats who have filed to challenge Brown-Waite in November, health care worker and local activist John Russell, who received 40% against Brown-Waite in the 2006 election, will likely be the nominee, hoping to capitalize on Brown-Waite's difficult primary, her modest fundraising, and recent demographic changes in this high-growth area. (CPVI=R+5)
- Florida's 8th congressional district: In 2006, incumbent Ric Keller (R), author of the "Cheeseburger Bill", was reelected by less than expected. Orlando businessman Charlie Stuart, who polled 46%, is running again in 2008. After the November 2006 election, Keller announced that he would break his 2000 pledge to serve only four terms. Because of this, conservative radio host Todd Long is challenging Keller in the Republican primary, as is retired Marine Corps officer Bob Hering and Republican candidate Greg Lewis. Former state prosecutor Mike Smith (D) is also challenging Keller[50]. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote (CPVI=R+3).
- Florida's 13th congressional district: Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter. Regardless, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008, though Buchanan is far ahead of Jennings in fundraising. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.[51] To further complicate matters for Jennings, former Democratic Congressional candidate Jan Schneider has filed to run as an Independent.[52] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 15th congressional district: Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. This will likely be a competitive race. The only announced Democratic candidate is physician Steve Blythe. Among Republicans, state Sen. Bill Posey has announced his candidacy and has been endorsed by Weldon and the Florida Republican Party. Libertarian Jeffrey Bouffard a Computer Engineer & Army Veteran has also filed to run.[53] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 16th congressional district: This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (CPVI=R+2). Negron has announced that he will not run again. State Rep. Gayle Harrell (R) has announced her candidacy but faces conservative primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised about $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.
- Florida's 21st congressional district: Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) has faced nothing more than token opposition since his first election. But this year, he faces the toughest race of his career. Former Hialeah Mayor Raul L. Martinez (D) is running and he is very well-known in the area.[54] Bush won 57% of the vote here in 2004 (CPVI=R+4).
- Florida's 22nd congressional district: First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Former Army officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West and former Navy pilot Mark Flagg both have announced they are running. Neurosurgeon Robert Brodner and 2006 Connecticut U.S. senatorial candidate Alan Schlesinger are also potential candidates. Mike Prysner an Iraq War veteran, peace activist, and college student is running on the Party for Socialism and Liberation ticket.[55]
- Florida's 24th congressional district: Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008 [56]. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis will run again. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004 (CPVI=R+3).
- Florida's 25th congressional district: Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (R) faces a challenge from the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chairman, Joe Garcia, a former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF).[57]
Florida's 15th congressional district: Dave Weldon(R)
GEORGIA
The Senate:...
Republican Incumbent: Saxby Chambliss
Democratic Challenger: TBA
The House:...
- Georgia's 8th congressional district: Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Republican congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid in 2008, which might prompt him to challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Marshall faces a primary challenge from music teacher Robert Nowak. On the Republican side, retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard has announced that he would run[58], and his background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall's own military background and well-established credibility on military issues may cancel this out somewhat. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+8). Other potential Republican candidates are state Senator Ross Tolleson, state Senator Cecil Staton and former congressman Mac Collins.
- Georgia's 10th congressional district: In a 2007 special election, physician Paul Broun, a Republican with libertarian views, won a stunning upset in a non-partisan runoff. Now Broun will face a July 17 Republican primary field and has drawn strong opposition. State Representative Barry Fleming has announced his candidacy and has raised more money than the incumbent. Democrat/Iraq War Veteran Bobby Saxon is challenging Broun. An independent candidate, James P. Mason, needs over 17,000 petitions to qualify.
- Georgia's 12th congressional district: John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote, but in 2007 Burns accepted a job with North Georgia College and State University, making a second rematch unlikely. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004 (CPVI=D+2). Barrow is facing a primary challenge from State Senator Regina Thomas. Republican former Augusta Mayor Bob Young may challenge Barrow. Iraq War veteran Chris Edenfield, lobbyist and former congressional aide Karen Bogans, mechanical engineer and former presidential candidate Ray McKinney and radio announcer and former congressional aide John Stone have all announced their candidacies.
IDAHO
The Senate:...
Democratic Candidate: Larry LaRocco
Republican Candidate: Jim Risch
Senate Retirements:
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
The House:...
Idaho's 1st congressional district: Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004 (CPVI=R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali defeated Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury in the March 27 primary.[59]. Walt Minnick, an Army Veteran Boise businessman and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996 is the Democratic nominee. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.
ILLINOIS
The Senate:...
Democratic Incumbent: Dick Durbin
Republican Challenger: Steve Sauerberg
The House:...
- Illinois's 6th congressional district: Freshman Peter Roskam (R) won his first term in Congress by a close 51% to 49% margin. This west suburban district was once solidly Republican, but has become more Democratic in recent years. It narrowly went to George W. Bush with 53% to 47% in 2004 (CPVI=R+3). Roskam will face Democrat Jill Morgenthaler, a retired U.S. Army Reserve Colonel and Iraq war veteran.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district: Melissa Bean (D) gained national attention by toppling longtime incumbent Phil Crane in 2004. However, the 8th is considered the most Republican of the Chicago suburban districts (and by some accounts, all of Illinois), and Bean has had a perennial spot on Republican target lists. Bean will face at least two challengers, Republican businessman, and former professional hockey player Steve Greenberg and Green Party candidate Iain Abernathy in the general election.[60]
- Illinois's 10th congressional district: Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47%. The district, the state's wealthiest, went for John Kerry with 54% in 2004 (CPVI=D+4). In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk will again face his 2006 opponent, Dan Seals, who won the Democratic primary with 81% against a credible opponent. David Kalbfleisch the founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.[61] Kalbfleisch is a Navy veteran and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War.[62][63]
- Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term.[64] Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry (CPVI=R+1). The Republican nominee was New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, but he announced in February that he was dropping out of the race.[65] Local businessman Martin Ozinga was chosen to replace Baldermann as the Republican candidate. [66] State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is the Democratic nominee. Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC,[67] is running as a Green Party candidate.
- Illinois's 14th congressional district: Democrat Bill Foster won this seat in a special election after former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert resigned. The Republican nominee is businessman Jim Oberweis, whom Foster defeated in the special election 53%–47%. Robert Hill is also running as the nominee of the Green Party.[68] George W. Bush won this district with 55% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI= R+5).
- Illinois's 16th congressional district: Donald Manzullo (R) defeated a one-term Democratic incumbent in 1992 and has not had a difficult contest since. However, he may face a serious opponent in Robert G. Abboud (D), the Village President of Barrington Hills, a wealthy Chicago suburb. Abboud is the president of RGA Labs Inc. and reportedly quite wealthy.[69] Bush won here with 55% to 45% in 2004 (CPVI=R+4). Scott Summers who was elected as a trustee of McHenry County College in 2005 is running as the Green Party candidate.[70].
- Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood (R) has announced that he will not seek reelection in 2008 [71] The district, based in Peoria, was once represented by former House Minority Leader Bob Michel. The district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so (CPVI=R+5). State Representative Aaron Schock (R) won the Republican nomination. The Democratic nominee is news personality Colleen Callahan. The Green Party candidate is Sheldon Schafer.[68]
Illinois's 11th congressional district: Jerry Weller(R)
Illinois's 18th congressional district: Ray LaHood(R)
Completed Special Elections:...Illinois's 14th congressional district: Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) resigned November 26, 2007. In a surprising upset, Bill Foster (D) defeated Jim Oberweis (R) in a special election on March 8, 2008. The two will likely face each other again in November for a full term.
INDIANA
The Senate: No Race...
The House:...
- Indiana's 2nd congressional district: In 2006, Joe Donnelly (D) won by 54% to 46% in this swing district that went to Bush with 55% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+4), largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Small business owner Luke Puckett, is the Republican nominee.
- Indiana's 7th congressional district: On December 15, 2007, incumbent Julia Carson (D) died. Carson's grandson and Indianapolis City-County Council member André Carson, was elected to fill this seat. (See Indiana's 7th congressional district special election, 2008). The district is centered around urban Indianapolis and leans Democratic, however, Republicans scored a major upset in last year's Indianapolis mayoral election with Greg Ballard defeating eight year incumbent Bart Peterson. Kerry won 58% here (CPVI=D+9). Carson defeated Democratic challengers, State Representative David Orentlicher, State Representative Carolene Mays, and former State Health Commissioner Woodrow Myers in the primary. Carson's Republican challenger in the special election, state Representative Jon Elrod, is the Republican nominee for the seat in the General Election.[72]
- Indiana's 8th congressional district: In 2006, freshman Brad Ellsworth (D) unseated John Hostettler (R) by 61% to 39%, surprising even his fellow Democrats by the margin. He will be a formidable candidate for reelection, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody 8th" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Greg Goode, a government affairs official at Indiana State, is the Republican nominee[73]. Bush won 61% here to 39% in 2004 (CPVI=R+9).
- Indiana's 9th congressional district: Baron Hill (D) narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 46% in 2006. The district went to George W. Bush with 59% of the vote in 2004 (CPVI=R+7). Hill and Mike Sodrel (R) have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain. To the delight and relief of his fellow Republicans, Sodrel is running again.[74] Eric Schansberg the 2006 Libertarian candidate has announced he is again seeking his party's nomination.[75]
IOWA
The Senate:...
Democratic Incumbent: Tom Harkin
Republican Challenger: TBA
The House:...
- Iowa's 1st congressional district: Liberal incumbent Bruce Braley won this northeastern Iowa district in 2006, winning by 55% to 43% after incumbent Republican Jim Nussle ran unsuccessfully for Governor. The district, which includes the communities of Dubuque, Waterloo, and Davenport, leans slightly to the Democrats, but elected Republicans for 28 years before Braley's election. The Republican nominee is state Senator David Hartsuch.[76]
- Iowa's 2nd congressional district: In 2006, David Loebsack (D) unseated thirty-year incumbent Jim Leach to win by just over 5,000 votes. Loebsack will be challenged this year, although his popularity remains high, in this Democratic-leaning district. In the Republican primary, opthamologist and veteran Mariannette Miller-Meeks appears to have defeated conservative funeral director Peter Teahen by 109 votes, but a recount looks likely.
- Iowa's 3rd congressional district: In 2006, incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell had a surprisingly difficult reelection, winning reelection by 52% to 46%. In the primary, Boswell defeated Liberal former state Representative Ed Fallon, who ran for Governor in 2006, by a 60% to 40% margin. Former Congressional aide Kim Schmett (R) is the Republican nominee.
- Iowa's 4th congressional district: Tom Latham (R) Despite the ever-so-slight Democratic advantage in the district,[citation needed] Republican incumbent Tom Latham has never experienced any particular difficulty getting reelected. This time around is shaping up to be more of the same. Community and party activist Becky Greenwald is the Democratic nominee.
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